9CaKrnKjFIK作者：Wang Hanworld.huanqiu.comarticleIMF: 2020年后，全球经济要靠中国和印度了！/e3pmh22ph/e3pmh2398<article><section data-type="rtext"><p><em data-scene="strong">本周二（美国当地时间），国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了最新的《全球经济展望报告》。</em></p><p><em data-scene="strong">IMF对于2019年全球经济增速的预期是怎样的呢？怎么看待中国的经济增速？</em></p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044715.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i><p>图 via AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</p><p>据IMF在官网上发布的《全球经济展望报告》，<em data-scene="strong">IMF对全球2019年的经济形势并不乐观</em>，称“全球经济增速放缓，复苏的迹象并不确定“。</p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044933.png?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i><p>图 via imf.org</p><p>After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018,<em data-scene="strong">global economic activity</em>slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting<em data-scene="strong">a confluence of factors</em>affecting major economies.</p><p><em data-scene="strong">全球经济</em>在经历2017年跟2018年前几月的强劲增长后，在2018年的下半年显著放缓。这个趋势表明<em data-scene="strong">一系列因素</em>在综合影响世界主要经济体的经济。</p><p>Via imf.org</p><p>值得注意的是，IMF对2019全球经济增速的预期是08年全球金融危机以来最低的。</p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044646.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i><p>Via Twitter;</p><p><em data-scene="strong">那么IMF对2019年全球经济增速的预期具体是怎样的？</em>我们来看下外媒的报道。</p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044725.png?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i><p>图 via apnews.com;IMF预测：2019年全球经济增速将放缓至3.3%</p><p><em data-scene="strong">The International Monetary Fund</em>on Tuesday<em data-scene="strong">downgraded its outlook for</em>growth in the United States, Europe, Japan and the overall global economy.</p><p>本周二(当地时间)，<em data-scene="strong">国际货币基金组织</em><em data-scene="strong">下调</em>对美国、欧洲、日本等全球主要经济体的经济增长<em data-scene="strong">预期</em>。</p><p>The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.3% this year, down from 3.6% in 2018. In its previous forecast in January, the IMF had predicted that international growth would reach 3.5% this year.</p><p>国际货币基金组织预计全球经济今年增速会在3.3%左右，比2018年的3.6%略微下降一些。在19年1月份的预测中，国际货币基金组织原本预测今年的全球经济增速会在3.5%。</p><p>For the United States, IMF economists downgraded their growth forecast for this year to 2.3% from 2.9% in 2018.</p><p>国际货币基金组织预测美国2019年的经济增速会从2018年的2.9%降低至2.3%。</p><p>Via apnews.com</p><p><em data-scene="strong">为何IMF对美国、欧洲、日本等发达国家的经济增速前景预期降低？</em></p><p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044507.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i></p><p>The euro area<em data-scene="strong">economy lost more momentum than expected</em>as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened.</p><p>在欧元区，<em data-scene="strong">经济衰退的程度比预期得还严重</em>。在欧元区，消费者和市场信心在降低;随着新的排放政策出台，德国的汽车生产也受到了影响;意大利的投资在减少;外部市场(尤其是亚洲新兴市场)对欧元区的需求也在放缓。</p><p>Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan.</p><p>自然灾害会影响日本的经济活动。</p><p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044237.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i></p><p>图 via AP;IMF首席经济学家Gita Gopinath</p><p>“This is a delicate moment for the global economy,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s<em data-scene="strong">chief economist</em>, said at a news conference, while cautioning that the fund does not foresee<em data-scene="strong">an international recession</em>.</p><p>IMF<em data-scene="strong">首席经济学家</em>Gita Gopinath在新闻发布会上说：“现在是全球经济非常脆弱的时刻。”但她警示IMF目前还没有预测到<em data-scene="strong">全球性的经济衰退</em>。</p><p>Gopinath said it was “imperative that costly policy mistakes are avoided.” In particular, she highlighted the need for the world’s two biggest economies, the United States and China, to find a way to<em data-scene="strong">resolve their trade war</em>, which has intensified global economic uncertainty.</p><p>她指出“避免犯一些损失惨重的政策性错误是至关重要的”。她特别提到世界两个最大的经济体美国和中国。她表示希望中美能找到合适的办法<em data-scene="strong">解决贸易战问题</em>，因为贸易战加剧了全球经济的不确定性。</p><p>Via AP</p><p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044851.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i></p><p>图 via AP Photo</p><p>值得注意的是，虽然IMF在这个报告中下调了对<em data-scene="strong">美国、欧洲、日本等</em>主要经济体经济增长预期，但却<em data-scene="strong">上调了对中国2019年经济增速的预期</em>。</p><p><em data-scene="strong">The IMF foresees the Chinese economy growing 6.3% this year</em>, down from 6.6% in 2018. But the fund’s latest 2019 outlook was a slight upgrade from the 6.2% growth it had forecast for China in January.</p><p><em data-scene="strong">IMF预测中国经济2019年的经济增速会在6.3%左右</em>。这个最新的预测比IMF在1月份预测的6.2%上升了一些。</p><p><em data-scene="strong">China’s prospects brightened</em>, the fund said.</p><p>IMF表示，<em data-scene="strong">中国的经济前景还是光明的</em>。</p><p>Via AP</p><p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044262.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i></p><p>IMF还在官方Twitter上单独发了一条消息强调，2020年之后全球经济增速预计会稳定在3.5%左右;<em data-scene="strong">而维持这个经济增速，主要靠的就是中国和印度的经济增长。</em></p><p><i class="pic-con"><img src="//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044967.jpg?imageView2/2/w/1260"/></i></p><p>图 via Twitter</p><p><em data-scene="strong">当前全球经济的风险性因素有哪些呢？你认同中国和印度将成为世界经济增长的主要力量吗？</em></p><p><em data-scene="strong">欢迎一起讨论。</em></p></section></article>1554881220000责编：王怡<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RVncPzyoEz6BH-rH_Em_0Q" >环球时报GlobalTimes</a>155488122000011["9CaKrnKjFfX","9CaKrnKjDCL","9CaKrnKjydd","9CaKrnKjC1B","9CaKrnKjw18"]//himg2.huanqiucdn.cn/attachment2010/2019/0410/20190410033044438.jpg{"email":"shixi@huanqiu.com","name":"王怡"}